USE THE ATTAChMENTS, INCLUDING THE EXCEL SHEET TO CREATE ADDITIONAL CHARTS FOR THE SUCCESFUL COMPLETION OF THIS TASK.
RESEARCH PAPER: SIMPLE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ASSIGNMENT INSTRUCTIONS
OVERVIEW
Another way to analyze fiscal data over time is via Time Series Analysis. Time series analysis enables public administrators and policy analysts to examine values of a variable over equally spaced intervals of time (e.g., income figures monthly or yearly). Using times series analyses, administrators and analysts can discern patterns in the values that then enable them to forecast future values based on historical and existing patterns.
A time series plot allows an analyst to look for (1) outliers and sudden shifts in data patterns and ( (2) long-term increase or decrease in the data values. A trend plot also will show whether the data pattern is linear, or nonlinear, as the time series plot. Then, the question to be asked is, why?
INSTRUCTIONS
• To successfully complete this assignment, please refer to the Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Assignment Guide found on the Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Assignment page.
• For this assignment, you will compute and interpret a Simple Time Series Analysis called “Exponential Smoothing� and write a four-page report stating your findings, including chart(s).
• Once the plot is completed, you will write a four-page report, including chart(s), interpreting the findings.
• This is a Doctoral-level research assignment designed to test your ability to carefully research, effectively organize, and concisely communicate a nuanced understanding of the concepts and issues raised in the assignment. While the minimum page limit is short (as is often the case in public policy/public administration briefings), students are expected to craft efficient, highly substantive papers. You are expected to comport with the highest writing, research, and ethical standards.
The paper must be in current APA format with 1-inch margins and 12-pt Times New Roman font. You must also include a title page and reference page. You must include citations to a sufficient number of appropriate professional, scholarly, or other appropriate sources to fully support your assertions and conclusions (which will likely require more than the minimum number of citations); each paper must contain citations to the course texts book, assigned readings, and a minimum of 5 additional sources not including the course textbooks, assigned readings, and the Bible.